According to a new research, more than 40% of the world’s great cities supplied by surface water could become freshwater vulnerable to shortages and drought by 2040. More than 3 out of 10 were already vulnerable in 2010, the study states.
For the first time in history, more than half the world’s population is now concentrated in cities, and this proportion is predicted to increase to two-thirds by 2050. Cities expand near abundant water supplies. As population explodes, so does the demand. The environmental flows (E-Flows) remain much the same.
Some major cities are already under drought stress. Chennai and Hyderabad in South India had to be supplied with tankers in 2004 and 2005 and so was Delhi in North India. These cities in India depend on River Krishna and River Yamuna’s freshwater resources. Delhi also gets part of it’s supply from neighboring states of Rajasthan and Haryana. São Paulo in Brazil in LatAm is now at a crisis point and cities in CA are struggling with unprecedented droughts.
Demand and supply:
Environmental scientist Julie Padowski and Steven Gorelick, director of the Global Freshwater Initiative at Stanford University in California, analyzed supplies to 70 cities in 39 countries, all of them with more than 750,000 inhabitants, and reliant on surface water.
Vulnerability is the failure of an urban supply basin to meet demands from human, environmental and agricultural users, and they set the supply target as 4,600 litres per person per day. This factors in “virtual water”, defined as the total volume of water needed to produce and process a commodity or service.
They proposed three different kinds of measure of supply.
- If a city failed to meet one or two of these metrics, it was considered threatened.
- If it failed to meet all three, it was rated as vulnerable.
The six cities that will begin to face water shortages are Dublin in Ireland, Charlotte in the US, Ouagadougou in Burkina Faso, and Guangzhou, Wuhan and Nanjing in China. Curiously, none of the cities in India have been listed to be freshwater vulnerable in the assessment. Most of the cities that are already vulnerable rely on reservoirs, and the study implies that urban planners will need to think about
- More reservoirs,
- Deeper wells or
- Desalination plants, or
- Will have to contemplate the diversion of rivers from somewhere else.
The article states that the scientists cannot rely on rainfall data because, the network of dedicated satellites “fails to meet operational data needs for flood management”.
4 of the 10 satellites have exceeded their design life. There are already weak spots in the network, especially in developing countries, which means that floods could take people by surprise. When 4 fail to deliver, the potential for catastrophe will be even worse. The scientists call for better international co-ordination of satellite replacement.
Vulnerable versus threatened status:
For both categories reservoir and river supplied cities were considered vulnerable, if all demand thresholds were violated. If a city had one or two but not all three metrics exceeding a threshold, then it was considered threatened, as these supplies may no longer be able to support urban demand without causing damage to agriculture, the environment, or both. The scientists referred to a city as susceptible if it has either threatened or vulnerable status; the number of susceptible cities is the sum of those that are threatened or vulnerable. Finally, cities were considered non-threatened if no demand thresholds were violated.
Importantly, the scientists did not factor in climate change, which might make conditions worse. Instead, they simply considered current demand and supply, and then projected demand in 2040.
Of the 70 cities, they found that 25 (36%) could already be considered to have become vulnerable by 2010. By 2040, this number will grow to 31 (44%).
Like what you are reading here? Please feel free to share widely.
Cities around the world are continually growing as they attract people, resources and ideas, and are drivers of global and national development. This is most evident in countries like India, where by 2030, 70% of the GDP and 70% of new jobs will come from cities.
Prime Minister, Mr. Modi government’s ambitious “100 Smart Cities” plan is making urban planning lucrative. India has been plagued by rapid and haphazard urbanization. People are migrating to the cities at an unprecedented rate. This creates problem, which is two folds. It makes the rural population dwindle and impacts the agriculture, eventually threatening food security. On the other hand, the migrating population increases pressure on the limited urban resources such as housing, water, wastewater management systems, electricity, transport, communication and so on.
India is estimated to have over 400 million urban inhabitants by 2050. This is more than any other country in the world. Managing such growth will require unprecedented levels of planning and investing in housing, infrastructure and utilities especially water supply and wastewater management.
Payment for Services:
People believe that amongst other utilities, water should be free in a city and expect that government and utility providers should take care of maintaining them. Water systems cost $3-$6 per month per household, in countries like India. At first glance it does not seem a lot, however when people make only $1-$3 a day, it can be a lot. When water supply and wastewater management systems fail, poor people suffer the most in the cities. Urban poor, especially women and girls, do not get any return on their money or time invested.
Futureproofing Smart Cities’ water systems:
Cities will be smart if water and wastewater services are planned based on the below criteria:
- Age and longevity of the systems
- Location and distance from the systems/sources
- Regulations around user fee collection
- Operation and maintenance of systems
- Mechanisms around regulations
- Users’ buy-in
Smart cities do all the above mentioned and more by:
- Integrating data from a wide range of sources–surveys, closed circuit cameras, utilities, public works and services, citizen reports and service providers to aid informed decision-making by policy makers, businesses and citizens.
- Adapting continuously in the face of rapidly changing urban landscape, both in chronic (traffic, infrastructure, public utilities) and acute or long term events (upcoming neighborhoods, natural disasters) etc.
- Building utilities and systems around the needs of population.
- Providing essential infrastructure and services that make cities liveable.
- Putting people at the center of all planning processes and projects.
“Creative cities”, “sustainable cities”, “eco-cities”, “resilient cities” and “liveable cities” and now “Smart Cities”. Doesn’t matter what name you call it, India, in order to sustain the growth of its robust economy and provide for growing needs of its urban populations, needs to recognize the value of its natural capital/resources and biocapacity in the planning process. It needs to develop strategies and policies to promote innovative solutions to foster efficiency in the use of limited urban resources, disposal of wastes and wastewater management and create opportunities for urban growth among others by
- Maintaining water resources and wastewater systems over long term
- Enabling reasonable support to issues that impact large urban population especially marginal and poor
- Identifying costs and financing mechanisms for addressing these issues for present and future
This article has been adopted from the original sources. To read the original content, please click on the hyperlinks in the article.
Like what you are reading? Please feel free to share it widely. Comments and suggestions are most welcome and much appreciated.
Investment in Water and Sanitation in Poor/Developing Countries:
A recent World Bank (WB) estimate showed that investing to provide drinking water to 750 million people in poor nations make clear sense with larger than expected health benefits. Senior Economist at WB’s Water and Sanitation Program (WASH) said “Provision of basic water and sanitation facilities would be a good investment in economic terms,” in the report.
Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, addressed the nation by making basic toilets as a national priority on India’s 68th Independence Day (August 15, 2014). Mr. Modi highlighted that this would also yield strong returns, without even considering improved human dignity during his address.
Economics of water investments:
WB report states that the universal access to basic drinking water at home would cost $14 billion a year until 2030, and yield benefits of $52 billion, or about $4 for every dollar spent, according to the preliminary findings that will form part of a wider review.
The benefits were twice those estimated in a previous global study done in 2012. This is partly because of larger than expected falls in diarrheal disease (water born diseases), and lower costs of digging wells/boreholes. Overall, building toilets to eliminate defecation outside in rural areas would cost $13 billion a year to 2030 and give benefits of $84 billion, a return of $6 for every dollar spent. The benefits were slightly less than in a previous study.
I have written in several of my blog posts that the world’s costliest water is when women and girls in a household spend countless hours a year fetching water and doing no other activity. Open defecation also poses a threat to girls and women, in terms of abuse and getting attacked by animals in the wild.
What does this mean ultimately?
Investments in better water could mean 170,000 fewer deaths a year, while basic sanitation would cut 80,000 deaths, mostly from infectious diarrhea.
Urbanization and water:
In the past 25 years, more than two billion people of a world population now totaling about 7.3 billion have gained access to better water and almost two billion to sanitation. The study estimated only health benefits and time saved, such as from walking to a river to fetch water. They hide intangible impacts such as dignity, social status and security.
Water as Fundamental Human Right:
The United Nations in 2010 defined improved sanitation and water as fundamental human right.
In addition to the economics of water investments behavioral change, translated which means feeling pride in building a basis toilet at home and abandoning open defecation for good, would drive the movement in India. The country can also take lessons from neighboring Bangladesh.
This article is an adoption of the original articles that appeared on various websites. To read the original content, please visit the source websites by clicking the hyperlinks. Thoughts expressed are my own.
Like what you are reading? Please feel free to share widely.
Its no news that agriculture (farming practices, irrigation and others) and rapid urbanization are two major factors to change the land usage and availability. Recent US Geological Survey report reveals that concentrations of natural and man-made pollutants that could persist for decades otherwise known as Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in essential underground water sources can change the chemistry and physical properties of the nation’s aquifers leading to greater concentrations.
About 130 million people in the United States rely on groundwater for drinking water, and the need for high-quality drinking-water supplies becomes more urgent as our population grows. Although groundwater is a safe, reliable source of drinking water for millions of people nationwide, high concentrations of some chemical constituents can pose potential human-health concerns. Some of these contaminants come from the rocks and sediments of the aquifers themselves, and others are chemicals that we use in agriculture, industry, and day-to-day life. When groundwater supplies are contaminated, millions of dollars can be required for treatment so that the supplies can be usable. Contaminants in groundwater can also affect the health of our streams and valuable coastal waters. By knowing where contaminants occur in groundwater, what factors control contaminant concentrations, and what kinds of changes in groundwater quality might be expected in the future, we can ensure the availability and quality of this vital natural resource in the future.
- Contaminants from geologic or man-made sources were a potential human-health concern in one of every five wells sampled in the parts of aquifers used for drinking water
- Differences in geology, hydrology, geochemistry, and chemical use explain how and why aquifer vulnerability and concentrations of contaminants vary across the Nation
- Changes to groundwater flow have also altered groundwater quality
Our actions today are determining groundwater quality for decades to come
These finding are not something unique to just the US aquifers. The type of soil (porous limestone in to volcanic basalts and from frozen surfaces in the high altitudes to parched deserts) have a unique chemical property and alter the composition of groundwater aquifers in countries like India and others.
Detection of pollutants in water or aquifers is not always a bad news. Its the affect that these pollutants might have on human health and organisms that raises a red flag. Moreover, you cannot define the aquifer boundaries as easily as land can be divided. In lay terms, if one farmer or city is causing pollution, then the chemicals and pollutants can easily bleach into the neighboring city’ (or farmer’s) aquifer.
We need to take the historic account of how much groundwater has been drawn by us over the years. Each day more than 288 million (76 billion gallons) are pumped from aquifers for farms and cities.
Like what you are reading here? Please feel free to share widely.
Did you guess that its terrorism, human trafficking or the nuclear war? Wrong!
World Economic Forum (WEF) 2015 ranked water crisis as the top global risk this week. Having observed the profound impact that quantity and quality of water can have over communities, it comes as no surprise to someone like me.
I also believe that we have to consider a few points while accessing water as top global risk:
- Agriculture water productivity: The competition for limited resource and growing demand with increasing world population. There is also the issue of the quality of water used for irrigation, and the crops produced.
- Water and energy nexus: We need water to irrigate the crops and electricity for water supply and withdrawing the ever depleting groundwater.
- Blue green cities: With the unprecedented rate of urbanization, water bodies and green spaces are a challenge to maintain and develop, as the land availability in the cities is a scarce commodity.
- Geopolitical sensitivities: India and China come to mind at once. Both are struggling with limited water resources and grappling the shared waters resources (primarily from rivers) as much as possible. The potential for shared management of water as a means to achieve regional cooperation and conflict prevention is vital. India, as both an upper and lower riparian nation, finds itself at the centre of water disputes with its eastern and western downstream neighbors — Bangladesh and Pakistan, who accuse New Delhi of monopolizing water flows.
- Water quality, availability, and business impact: Dialogue surrounding the global water challenge tends to focus on supply, but we hear much less about the quality of our water. Water availability and quality not only has an impact on the businesses but also on the communities in their vicinity.
- Economics of traditional water management systems: Operation and maintenance of the water supply systems is antiquated and labor intensive, in most developing countries. It takes a lot of money, resources and will to ensure that these systems are up and running.
- Last but not the least climate change: India also has challenges, as the neighboring Bangladesh, because of the rising sea levels. Bangladesh is one of the most threatened countries, when it comes to sea level rise issue because of climate change.
Identifying water as top global risk is work half done. It will take a multi-stakeholder and multi-pronged approach to understand what this risk means for the world.
The opinions expressed in this article are entirely of the author. To read on the sources cited in this article, please visit the original websites by clicking the hyperlinks.
Like what you are reading? Please tweet, like on LinkedIn and fb and share with your peers.